Strengths of this risk prediction model for Barrett's includes the relatively large number of cases
While not breaking any new ground, this large meta-analysis observed that older age, male sex, smoking, longer BE segment, and LGD were predictive of progression of BE to dysplasia or cancer.
Factors Associated With Progression of Barrett's Esophagus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Rajesh Krishnamoorthi, Siddharth Singh ... Prasad G Iyer
Background & aims: Endoscopic surveillance of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) is inefficient. Risk stratification of patients might improve the effectiveness of surveillance. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify factors associated with progression of BE without dysplasia or BE with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) to high-grade dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma.
Methods: We performed a systematic search of databases through May 2016 to identify cohort studies of patients with baseline BE without dysplasia or BE with LGD that reported predictors of progression. Pooled estimates (odds ratios) of associations of age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, obesity, baseline LGD, segment length, and medication use with progression were calculated.
Results: We identified 20 studies, reporting 1231 events in 74943 patients. The studies associated BE progression with increasing age (12 studies; odds ratio [OR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), male sex (11 studies; OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.84-2.53), ever smoking (current or past, 8 studies; OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.09-1.98), and increasing BE segment length (10 studies; OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.16-1.36), with a low degree of heterogeneity. LGD was associated with a 4-fold increase in risk of BE progression (11 studies; OR, 4.25; 95% CI, 2.58-7.0). Use of proton pump inhibitors (4 studies; OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.32-0.96) or statins (3 studies; OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31-0.73) were associated with lower risk of BE progression. Alcohol use and obesity did not associate with risk of progression.
Conclusions: In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we associated older age, male sex, smoking, longer BE segment, and LGD with risk of progression of BE. Individuals with these features should undergo more intensive surveillance or endoscopic therapy. Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for cancer prevention in patients with BE.