Strengths of this risk prediction model for Barrett's includes the relatively large number of cases
Some useful confirmatory data on the prevalence of BE according to status of various risk factors.
Gastrointest Endosc. 2019 May 29. pii: S0016-5107(19)31769-9. doi: 10.1016/j.gie.2019.05.030. [Epub ahead of print]
Systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence and risk factors for Barrett’s esophagus.
Qumseya BJ1, Bukannan A2, Gendy S3, Ahemd Y4, Sultan S5, Bain P6, Gross SA7, Iyer P8, Wani S9.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS:
Although screening for Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is recommended in individuals with multiple risk factors, the type and number of risk factors necessary to trigger screening is unclear. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to assess the relationship between number of risk factors and prevalence of BE.
Through October 17, 2018, we searched studies that described the prevalence of BE in the general population and based on presence of risk factors that included GERD, male gender, age >50 years, family history of BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), and obesity (defined as body mass index >35). Risk of BE based on number of risk factors was assessed using meta-regression while controlling for potential confounders.
Of 2,741 studies, 49 were included in the analysis (307,273 individuals, 1,948 with biopsy-proven BE). Indications varied by study. The prevalence of BE for various populations was as follows: low-risk general population: 0.8% (95% CI, 0.6% – 1.1%); GERD: 3% (95% CI, 2.3% – 4%); GERD plus presence of any other risk factor: 12.2% (95% CI,10.2% – 14.6%); family history: 23.4% (95% CI,13.7% -37.2%); age > 50: 6.1% (95% CI, 4.6% – 8.1%); obesity: 1.9% (95% CI, 1.2% – 3%); and male sex: 6.8% (95% CI, 5.3% – 8.6%). Prevalence of BE varied significantly between Western and non-Western populations. In a meta-regression, controlling for the region of the study, age, and gender, there was a positive linear relationship between the number of risk factors and the prevalence of BE.
Results of this study provide estimates of BE prevalence based on the presence and the number of risk factors. These results add credence to current guidelines that suggest screening in the presence of multiple risk factors.